Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Milton) , Major: 44 (Milton) Florida - Any: 44 (Milton) Major: 44 (Milton)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#550103 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 14.Oct.2012)
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

AFTER IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTLY AFTER
THE RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 64 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND 1800 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50
KT. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FROM RAFAEL TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE LACK OF A TIGHT INNER CORE AND THE
MARGINAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT
RAFAEL WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.

RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/9 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. RAFAEL SHOULD
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TUESDAY...A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST RAFAEL WILL GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 1200 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN