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| #550104 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 14.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 ...RAIN BANDS FROM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 64.7W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
