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| #550120 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:35 PM 14.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 800 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
