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| #550176 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 AM 15.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012 ...RAFAEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 65.1W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH... 83 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 66 MPH/106 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
