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| #550255 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 15.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 65.7W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
