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| #550318 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 15.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012 ...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
