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| #550454 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 16.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 800 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 ...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER SHORTLY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...90 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
