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| #550588 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 16.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 ...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
