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| #550646 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 17.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012 RAFAEL IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING HAS PROBABLY OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT MISSION...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...SOME DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24H AND SHOULD COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF RAFAEL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE AID OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...SO THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON THESE MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/29. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. IN A FEW DAYS...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL SHOULD MOVE IN A LARGE CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AS IT WHIPS AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 35.2N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 43.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/1800Z 46.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z 49.0N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 54.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
