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| #551975 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 23.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012 ENHANCED INFRARED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE INTRUDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE TAFB FINAL-T NUMBER HAS DECREASED TO 30 KT WHILE THE SAB ESTIMATE REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR BEFORE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION FORECAST...BASED ON THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HR. AFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...SHOW THE POST-TROPICAL LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN AROUND 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AN EARLIER METOP-A AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTED THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS. WITH THAT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MEAN CENTER AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 015/10. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SITUATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEPRESSION MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AROUND THE 36-HR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT CLOSER TO THE MODEL CLUSTER AT DAY 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 24.1N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 25.3N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 26.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.5N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 31.6N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z 36.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
