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| #552028 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 23.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012 THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REGENERATING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND AN OUTER BAND FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. UW-CIMSS AMSU AND ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.0. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS BEING HELD AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION UNTIL WE GET MORE CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES. WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO OVER 50 KT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE DEPRESSION THEREFORE ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A FRONTAL LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH NO SUBSEQUENT INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO SUPPORT A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ON DAYS 3 AND 4. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS WHILE THE UKMET MAINTAINS A LOW BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...WHICH IS THE SAME SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE GFS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/13 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION TRANSITIONS FROM A POSITION TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW INTO THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION SHOULD THEN OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A GENERAL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.7N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.8N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 28.5N 45.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 29.5N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 32.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z 38.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
