Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #552086 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 23.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012 SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE PEEKING OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS ALSO LOST SOME OF ITS CURVATURE AND IS A LITTLE MORE LINEAR. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE STILL T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE 30 KT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE AND SHEAR DIRECTION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. EVEN STILL...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS WELL BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BEYOND 12 HOURS AND INDICATES A PEAK OF 40 KT IN A DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A FRONT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IT COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AZORES BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY DAY 4 WHEN IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE AZORES. THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.3N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 27.4N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 28.8N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 30.7N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
