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| #552211 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 24.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TONY HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS SITUATED JUST BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS EXPANDED AND THE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -70C. BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...AND ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...TONY SHOULD COMMENCE A SPIN DOWN TREND DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE MET-9 RGB AIR MASS IMAGERY INDICATES A COLD STABLE MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS WITH DRY DESCENDING AIR ALOFT PRECEDING A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST IN 36 HOURS...AND AGREES WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. DISSIPATION OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/14. TONY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD...TONY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL. THE WIND RADII AT DAY 2 AND 3 HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.4N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.5N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.7N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 30.7N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0600Z 31.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
