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| #552401 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 24.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012 AFTER BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF TONY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING SOME INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT IS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THIS MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH IS CAUSING THE FRONT TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. WHILE A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD NORMALLY WEAKEN TONY PRETTY QUICKLY...THE UPPER-ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO COOL QUITE A BIT...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION TIMING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...070/20. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STORM KEEPING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLIGHT DECELERATION AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. A DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD THEN TURN TONY TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36H...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BY 72H AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF A POLEWARD MOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITHIN THE VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 30.1N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 31.1N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0000Z 32.3N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z 33.5N 30.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 34.5N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 37.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
