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| #552481 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 25.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012 MET-9 AND GOES-13 IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TONY IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND...AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. CONVERSELY...THE COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AFFECTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY TONY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY SEPARATED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS HAS WEAKENED THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...TONY WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... HOWEVER...WILL STILL CALL FOR TONY TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY AS A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST...AND DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS. A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CERTAINLY HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS...070/20. TONY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE PERIPHERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND AGREES WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 30.4N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 31.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0600Z 32.5N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 33.4N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z 34.4N 27.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
