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| #552545 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 25.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE TYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 31.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 31.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 32.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 33.2N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
