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| #5545 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 17.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS LAGGING BEHIND THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 355/12...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO IMMEDIATELY SHEAR OFF THE CYCLONE AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER. TO VARYING DEGREES...THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICAL SYSTEM AND RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD. DANIELLE IS CLEARLY BEGINNING TO SUFFER FROM SHEAR...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER HAND...WHICH BOGUSES A VORTEX...SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A SHEARED SYSTEM 24 HOURS INTO THE INTEGRATION. I HAVE REJECTED BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS AS UNREALISTIC. THAT LEAVES THE UKMET AND THE GFDL...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS HANDILY OUTPERFORMED THE FORMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...FROM 65 KT FROM AFWA TO 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED FROM 85 TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WARM SSTS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 26.5N 40.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 28.3N 40.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 30.2N 39.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 31.8N 38.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 37.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 35.0N 34.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 39.0N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/0000Z 46.0N 16.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
