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| #5574 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 18.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY DISRUPTED. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. SINCE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 72 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS WEAK...THEREFORE DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AND...ACCELERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WEAKENING OCCURS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DANIELLE BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. IT COULD THEN MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND IN FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TUNE WITH THE GFS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 28.5N 39.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 30.2N 39.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 31.5N 39.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 32.5N 37.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 33.5N 36.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 35.0N 33.5W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/1200Z 37.0N 29.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
