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| #5680 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 19.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004 DANIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWS WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER DANIELLE SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. DANIELLE WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS LATER TODAY. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED THROUGH 48 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 30.0N 37.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 30.5N 37.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 31.0N 36.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 32.0N 35.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 34.5W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/1200Z 34.0N 32.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1200Z 36.0N 28.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
