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| #5691 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 19.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004 THERE ARE CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODELS IN THE 12Z RUN...A BIG PLUS FOR THE GFS IF THIS HAPPENS. DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE FORCING DANIELLE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS BEGAN TO SUGGEST THIS NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TREND MUCH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. I HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND MOVE DANIELLE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. NEVERTHERELESS...ALTHOUGH DANIELLE REMAINS AS 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM...STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SINCE DANIELLE IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT COULD LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW INSTEAD OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 30.0N 37.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 30.0N 37.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 30.8N 37.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 31.5N 37.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 32.0N 37.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 32.5N 37.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 37.7W 25 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 34.0N 39.0W 25 KT |
