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| #56925 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 15.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE ABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1030Z. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE... ALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. WHILE THE DETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE. AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.2N 67.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT |
