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| #57035 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:34 PM 15.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE EARLIER TRACK. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 0030Z HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE RACING MORE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION THOUGH...AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THE DEPRESSION IS ON A FAST TRACK TO DISSIPATION. QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES JUST IN A FEW MOMENTS AGO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT A CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT...BUT JUST BARELY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS AND UW/CIMSS INDICATE THERE IS STILL ABOUT 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT SURVIVE...THE DEPRESSION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT NOW BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NEITHER MODEL NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE APRROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. A COMPLICATION IS THE BROAD AND PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IF THIS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH HAS NEVER THOUGHT HIGHLY OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO FAR HAS BEEN RIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRESUME THAT THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND IS A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.9N 70.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 72.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.1N 74.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 15.3N 76.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 78.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 81.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 81.5W 55 KT |
