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| #57069 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:34 AM 16.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005 THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS. NO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING. WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION. SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.8N 71.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
