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| #5717 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 19.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004 EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2010Z SHOWED AT LEAST 30 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2316Z SUGGESTED THERE MAY STILL BE 35 KT WINDS IN THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT ONE MORE TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 100/3. DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ISOLATED FROM MOST STEERING INFLUENCES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 72 HR... WHEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE AZORES. THIS SHOULD MOVE DANIELL GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM THAT TIME...WITH ERRATIC MOTION UNTIL THEN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON JUST WHERE THE STORM COULD WIND UP BEFORE THE 72 HR POINT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HR...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL...GUNS...AND GUNA MODELS AFTER THAT. THE FIRST 72 HR IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE DANIELLE COULD BE FURTHER EAST IF THE UKMET AND NHC98 VERIFY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS WEST OF DANIELLE LAST NIGHT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG FOR 72 HR. DESPITE THIS...THE GFDL AND SHIPS HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM UNTIL 120 HR...AND SO WILL THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE ARE TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST IS THAT DANIELLE COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 72 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE SECOND IS THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH SOME AFTER 72 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IF DANIELLE SURVIVES THAT LONG. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 29.7N 36.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 29.9N 36.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 31.1N 35.9W 25 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 31.7N 36.1W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 32.5N 36.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 37.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 34.5N 39.0W 25 KT |
