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| #5727 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 20.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 THE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC WITH A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 30N 55W OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EAST-WEST COMPONENT OF MOTION WITH ABOUT A 400 N MI EAST-WEST SPREAD IN THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND HAVE NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE UP TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA IS THE SAME USED TO JUSTIFY KEEPING 35 KT IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SO THE WIND WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT AGAIN IN THIS ADVISORY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER THE STORM AND THIS SHOULD BRING DANIELLE TO BELOW STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 30.3N 37.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 30.8N 37.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 31.1N 37.4W 25 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 31.5N 38.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 33.0N 38.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 35.0N 39.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 37.0N 39.0W 25 KT |
