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| #5744 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 20.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 DESPITE THE APPARENT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...EXACERBATING THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE... WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT DANIELLE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE BIT LONGER SINCE NEITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS WEAKEN DANIELLE. IN FACT...THE LATTER MAKES DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD STEER DANIELLE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AT THIS TIME. I RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO SEE IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TREND CONTINUES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 30.8N 37.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 31.1N 37.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 38.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 32.0N 38.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 32.5N 39.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 34.0N 40.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 36.0N 41.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 39.5N 41.0W 25 KT |
