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| #5772 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 20.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 FINALLY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMOVED MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DANIELLE IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAUSE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 31.0N 37.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 31.3N 38.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 31.8N 38.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 32.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 35.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 40.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z 44.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
