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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
 
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#5795 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 20.Aug.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND DANIELLE WILL BE
TRACKING OVER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AND DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DANIELLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BETWEEN 24-48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL...BUT THIS REMAINS AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

DANIELLE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/04. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WESTERLY TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 31.2N 38.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 38.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 31.9N 39.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 32.5N 40.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z 33.7N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/0000Z 36.6N 42.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/0000Z 41.0N 41.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0000Z 45.2N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW