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| #58207 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 23.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES...FROM TRMM...SSMI...AND SSMI/S...INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KT. DELTA IS STILL IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT DOES NOT DECREASE THE SHEAR AS MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. NONETHELESS...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND AT LEAST SOME RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DELTA CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A NEW CYCLONE FORMING TO THE WEST OF DELTA AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN 3-5 DAYS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND IT IS APPARENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGER GYRE. DELTA SHOULD STOP MOVING SOUTHWARD SOON...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GYRE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL SHOWING DELTA TURNING AROUND AND MOVING QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2114 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED SOME CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 25.3N 40.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.4N 39.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 24.2N 39.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 39.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 40.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 31.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
