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| #58476 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:28 PM 25.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND AN INCREASING AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 983 MB FROM BOTH UW-CIMSS AND NESDIS-CIRA AT 25/1629Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/03 KT...ALTHOUGH THE 6-HR MOTION HAS BEEN 230/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION... DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND NOW THE UKMET MODEL... WHICH TAKE DELTA SLOWLY CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS. DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER... WHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DELTA BY 96 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.4N 39.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.3N 38.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 38.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 36.8W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.4N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 29.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z 30.0N 25.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
