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| #58675 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:52 PM 26.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING DOWNSHEAR OR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CENTER FOR DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO REMAIN 2.5 CORRESPONDING TO 35 KT. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 20Z MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... IT DID REVEAL 30 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT... AND SINCE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... DELTA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WELL INTO SUNDAY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STORM OUT TO 24 HOURS... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE SHEAR TO TAKE SOME OF ITS TOLL SOONER THAN THAT. DELTA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE. DELTA IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 18 KT... PERHAPS EVEN FASTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A CONTINUED ACCELERATION ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER... A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST AS DELTA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS... CONSIDERING THE ALREADY QUITE RAPID INITIAL MOTION. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.2N 34.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE |
