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| #58897 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:31 AM 28.Nov.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A MID- LATITUDE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DELTA HAS MERGED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM AND... AS A RESULT... IS RAPIDLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON NUMEROUS 50-55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A 28/0642Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. SINCE THOSE WIND VECTORS WERE LOCATED IN THE RAIN-FREE DRY SLOT... THEY ARE CONSIDERED BE VALID. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/26 KT. WHILE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE... THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF DELTA APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED EASTWARD AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...DESPITE 60 KT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF DELTA AS IT SWINGS EASTWARD... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION AT 25-30 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF DELTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DELTA APPEARS TO BE GIVING THE SYSTEM A SHOT OF ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC ENERGY. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 25-30 FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE... I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP DELTA AS A STORM SYSTEM UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MOROCCAN COAST. HOWEVER... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL AND COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF MAURITANIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THOSE AREAS AT LEAST 6 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THOSE LAND MASSES/COUNTRIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS... AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LOCATED EAST OF MARRAKESH MOROCCO. THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW... AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 30.3N 20.1W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 15.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 9.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0000Z 30.7N 3.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 48HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAND |
