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| #59446 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:20 PM 01.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005 CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THE RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... A VISIBLE EYE PATTERN OF NEARLY T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND AODT ESTIMATES... AND A 01/1710Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 982 MB/66 KT... WHICH IS A DECREASE OF 3 MB AND AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE 01/0944Z ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/09. EPSILON SEEMS TO HAVE STEADIED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY IN 48-120 HOURS. EVEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS STALLING OF EPSILON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE ONLY OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS... WHICH RACE EPSILON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AND HAVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 120 HOURS. THOSE TWO MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BECOME ZONAL WITH TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 85 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SST OF 77F/25C. SO IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS MOVING OVER A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER WATER... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER... SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AS EPSILON MOVES OVER 22C AND COLDER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 31.7N 51.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.7N 49.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.1N 48.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.3N 46.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z 36.4N 44.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1800Z 38.5N 40.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1800Z 41.0N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
