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| #59598 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 02.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS. HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END. EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 34.2N 47.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
