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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 55 (Milton) , Major: 55 (Milton) Florida - Any: 55 (Milton) Major: 55 (Milton)
 
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#59631 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 02.Dec.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH
WIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION
AND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT
PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND
THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR
EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...
SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY
QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON
SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND
THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO
FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW
SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF
CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...IF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 34.5N 46.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL