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| #59652 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 03.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION...WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING KEPT AT HURRICANE STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADED ON A LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THE PREDICTION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY. INDEED...IF EPSILON BEGINS TO ACQUIRE A SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...IT COULD PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...075/08. EARLIER IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE FLOW AHEAD OF A SERIES OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WOULD TAKE EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER NOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND NOT PICK UP THE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. ONLY THE U.K. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PICKING UP EPSILON AND CARRYING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A VERY GOOD TRACK FORECAST MODEL...IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT DOES NOT YET ADMIT A SIZABLE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 34.6N 45.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 44.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 35.7N 38.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 35.9N 36.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/0600Z 35.0N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
