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| #59859 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 AM 04.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR. EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU? FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
