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| #59976 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 04.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES STILL DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2125Z SHOWED SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ALSO...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AND AMSU ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES...IT IS NOT LIKELY TO INTERACT MUCH MORE WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING ENMESHED WITHIN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EPSILON APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 100/8. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD...SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING BETWEEN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE ABOVEMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW. THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT DRIVE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO QUITE AS FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE MADE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 34.2N 37.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 34.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 32.5N 34.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.2N 34.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 38.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0000Z 22.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
