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| #60121 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 05.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 33.7N 34.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
