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| #60257 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 AM 06.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 EPSILON APPEARS TO STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT JUST BARELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 08Z ESTIMATED WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... SO 65 KT WINDS WERE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED A LITTLE UNTIL 12Z WHEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55-65 KT. JUST WHEN I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED TO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD... SO THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE WEAK FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. EPSILON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 8 KT... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THERE IS THE HINT THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING. A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. ON THAT TRACK EPSILON WILL STILL BE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED. ONCE EPSILON EMERGES WEST OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A MORE STEADY DECLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... CALLING FOR EPSILON TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE DRAWN BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... INSTEAD OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 31.9N 33.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 34.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 28.9N 36.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 27.6N 37.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 40.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
