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| #60297 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 06.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C. THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE WEAKENING TREND. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY BENEATH IT FOREVER. ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT. STRONG WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON. WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48 HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 31.1N 34.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 29.9N 35.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.4N 37.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.1N 38.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 38.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
