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| #60325 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 06.Dec.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005 THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME... EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. HI-RES DATA FROM THE 2037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME VERY REASONABLE-LOOKING 60 KT VECTORS IN MUCH OF THE EYEWALL...AND ALLOWING FOR THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME 65 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO STILL 65 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON AND DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS SWEEPING EASTWARD...AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE EPSILON IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHEAR AWAY THE CONVECTION...LEAVING EPSILON AS A REMNANT LOW TO BE ABSORBED WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 215/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE SHEARS OFF...AT WHICH POINT THE MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER...SO LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN JUST PRIOR TO ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 30.3N 35.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.1N 36.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 27.5N 37.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.5N 38.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 38.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
