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| #605558 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 07.Jun.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ANDREA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE RAIN IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. BUOY AND RADAR DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS....BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS INTO A POST- TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANDREA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 32.4N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/0600Z 39.5N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 46.5N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
