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| #605650 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 07.Jun.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ANDREA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS NOT YET FRONTAL AND SOME CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 KT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS STILL ASSUMED THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ANDREA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ACCELERATION CONTINUES...AND ANDREA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/24 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER OF ANDREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 34.4N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 37.5N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 45.3N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 46.8N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN |
