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| #605894 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 07.Jun.2013) TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION... THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 38.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/1200Z 41.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 45.4N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 46.8N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 47.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
