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| #608505 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 17.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
