Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #608576 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 17.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 17.9N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 18.4N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA |
