Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #608605 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 17.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA |
