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| #608847 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 18.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
