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| #6089 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 25.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 2100Z WED AUG 25 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 46.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.9N 48.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
